The Current State of the Tampa Bay Rays

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We have great pitching and……well…. we have a great manager. The Tampa Bay Rays are competing in the toughest division in baseball with great pitching and a great manager and that’s it! How is Tampa hanging in there when compared to the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox’s?

Success has a formula and for the Rays it’s their minor league system. The Rays are consistently producing nice arms. Some of this has to do with the past decade of high draft picks but more recently Mark Friedman has been quite savvy in collecting picks via trades. The problem is that the majority of the Rays prospects are pitchers. Granted, you can’t ever enough quality arms but the lack of bats coming up is of some concern. Besides Desmond Jennings, the Rays have NO other viable internal options to help the anemic Rays offense.

So where are the Rays in 2011? They are currently the mirror image of their farm system. Great pitching all around sprinkled with decent hitters here and there.
The lack of offense was highlighted in the most recent series against the division leading Boston Red Sox. The Rays were only able to produce two runs on seven hits during the first two games of the series. The trademark “Rays Manufactured Run” isn’t as prevalent without Crawford tearing up the bases. This was painfully obvious in last nights loss to Boston. In the bottom of the ninth, Elliot failed in his attempt to lay down the sacrifice bunt and advance both Kotchman and Upton. Sean Rodriguez and Justin Ruggiano followed by striking out to end the game. The difference in 2011 and 2010, 2009, 2008 is that in previous years we would have gotten the runners over and scored at least one run via a sacrifice fly.

It’s not that Tampa doesn’t have the ability to hit but rather the consistency in doing so isn’t there. The fact of the matter is that Upton, Jaso, Fuld, Johnson, Shoppach, Brignac, and Rodriguez are all below league averages in offensive production. Upton started off the year on a tear only to sizzle to a .143 BA this month. Furthermore, Longoria is sporting a .244/.358/.430 stat line. If the season ended today this would be his worst season to date. Without the unexpected bat of Matt Joyce the Rays could theoretically be completely out of the AL East Pennant race by now.

So where do we go from here? I would hold tight and stay the course. The Rays currently have an unofficial musical chairs game in the outfield with Desmond Jennings joining soon. With the July 31st deadline approaching the Rays may look to deal one of those outfielders in order to sure up other deficiencies such as offense. The problem is which outfielder should go?

BJ Upton is the player with the most trade buzz. Despite his bad press he is a solid center fielder. With the exception of 2009, Upton has had a WAR of four or better. Add in his outstanding defensive skills and above average base stealing and he actually out performs a list of very notable center fielders.
Notable Center Fielders that B.J. Upton had a better WAR than last year:

Denard Span
Alex Rios
Andrew McCutchen
Matt Kemp
Adam Jones

As previously mentioned, BJ has cooled down significantly but historically he has an annual slump that lasts between 30-45 days. There’s no doubt, trading Upton would render a good return of prospects but would Tampa be a better off?

The reason for the musical chairs in the outfield is because of the lack production at the plate. In May, Sam Fuld came out of nowhere and became a fan favorite yet his June has been so horrific he’s lucky to still be on the 25 man roster. Justin Ruggiano was called up before Desmond Jennings and has caught fire this month. Yet many wonder if he’s this month’s version of Sam Fuld. If BJ Upton is traded then Tampa is left with one of the two as the everyday left fielder. I know, scary thought.

Desmond Jennings is expected to arrive within weeks and is branded as the next Carl Crawford of BJ Upton 3.0. It’s very possible that Jennings catches on quick and mimics Atlanta’s Jason Heywards entrance to the bigs but can the Rays count on that? My feeling is “no they cannot”. Not only is this a tremendous amount of pressure on a rookie but it’s unrealistic no matter how touted the prospect is.

My feeling is that the Rays should keep BJ Upton unless they fall really behind in the standings. This would give the Rays an outfield of Jennings, Upton, and Joyce with Ruggiano as the 4th option. There isn’t a ton of power there but that’s a great defense, speed, and athleticism that could help jolt the Rays in producing more of their trademarked “Manufactured Runs”. In addition, Longoria is starting too heat up after his stint on the DL. If Zobrist, Damon, and Kotchman continue their current hitting trends the Rays would then have above average offensive production from every position minus shortstop and catcher. Even if Jennings struggles its unlikely that the offense will drop off if any. On the contrary, if Upton was traded the likelihood of a drop off is much more likely. It follows, that the Rays should benefit by simply staying put and waiting it out.

So what’s the current state of the Rays? Same old same old. There right in the thick of the AL East division despite a shoe string budget. The pitching is talented and deep with internal options waiting in the farm leagues. The hitting is inconsistent and options are limited with little spending money. Calling upon Jennings and waiting on Longoria and Upton to heat up could be enough fire power to compete during the pennant race in September. Especially with Joe Maddon at the helm.