The Current State of the Tampa Bay Rays

KudoSurf Me!Follow @twittablogga

We have great pitching and……well…. we have a great manager. The Tampa Bay Rays are competing in the toughest division in baseball with great pitching and a great manager and that’s it! How is Tampa hanging in there when compared to the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox’s?

Success has a formula and for the Rays it’s their minor league system. The Rays are consistently producing nice arms. Some of this has to do with the past decade of high draft picks but more recently Mark Friedman has been quite savvy in collecting picks via trades. The problem is that the majority of the Rays prospects are pitchers. Granted, you can’t ever enough quality arms but the lack of bats coming up is of some concern. Besides Desmond Jennings, the Rays have NO other viable internal options to help the anemic Rays offense.

So where are the Rays in 2011? They are currently the mirror image of their farm system. Great pitching all around sprinkled with decent hitters here and there.
The lack of offense was highlighted in the most recent series against the division leading Boston Red Sox. The Rays were only able to produce two runs on seven hits during the first two games of the series. The trademark “Rays Manufactured Run” isn’t as prevalent without Crawford tearing up the bases. This was painfully obvious in last nights loss to Boston. In the bottom of the ninth, Elliot failed in his attempt to lay down the sacrifice bunt and advance both Kotchman and Upton. Sean Rodriguez and Justin Ruggiano followed by striking out to end the game. The difference in 2011 and 2010, 2009, 2008 is that in previous years we would have gotten the runners over and scored at least one run via a sacrifice fly.

It’s not that Tampa doesn’t have the ability to hit but rather the consistency in doing so isn’t there. The fact of the matter is that Upton, Jaso, Fuld, Johnson, Shoppach, Brignac, and Rodriguez are all below league averages in offensive production. Upton started off the year on a tear only to sizzle to a .143 BA this month. Furthermore, Longoria is sporting a .244/.358/.430 stat line. If the season ended today this would be his worst season to date. Without the unexpected bat of Matt Joyce the Rays could theoretically be completely out of the AL East Pennant race by now.

So where do we go from here? I would hold tight and stay the course. The Rays currently have an unofficial musical chairs game in the outfield with Desmond Jennings joining soon. With the July 31st deadline approaching the Rays may look to deal one of those outfielders in order to sure up other deficiencies such as offense. The problem is which outfielder should go?

BJ Upton is the player with the most trade buzz. Despite his bad press he is a solid center fielder. With the exception of 2009, Upton has had a WAR of four or better. Add in his outstanding defensive skills and above average base stealing and he actually out performs a list of very notable center fielders.
Notable Center Fielders that B.J. Upton had a better WAR than last year:

Denard Span
Alex Rios
Andrew McCutchen
Matt Kemp
Adam Jones

As previously mentioned, BJ has cooled down significantly but historically he has an annual slump that lasts between 30-45 days. There’s no doubt, trading Upton would render a good return of prospects but would Tampa be a better off?

The reason for the musical chairs in the outfield is because of the lack production at the plate. In May, Sam Fuld came out of nowhere and became a fan favorite yet his June has been so horrific he’s lucky to still be on the 25 man roster. Justin Ruggiano was called up before Desmond Jennings and has caught fire this month. Yet many wonder if he’s this month’s version of Sam Fuld. If BJ Upton is traded then Tampa is left with one of the two as the everyday left fielder. I know, scary thought.

Desmond Jennings is expected to arrive within weeks and is branded as the next Carl Crawford of BJ Upton 3.0. It’s very possible that Jennings catches on quick and mimics Atlanta’s Jason Heywards entrance to the bigs but can the Rays count on that? My feeling is “no they cannot”. Not only is this a tremendous amount of pressure on a rookie but it’s unrealistic no matter how touted the prospect is.

My feeling is that the Rays should keep BJ Upton unless they fall really behind in the standings. This would give the Rays an outfield of Jennings, Upton, and Joyce with Ruggiano as the 4th option. There isn’t a ton of power there but that’s a great defense, speed, and athleticism that could help jolt the Rays in producing more of their trademarked “Manufactured Runs”. In addition, Longoria is starting too heat up after his stint on the DL. If Zobrist, Damon, and Kotchman continue their current hitting trends the Rays would then have above average offensive production from every position minus shortstop and catcher. Even if Jennings struggles its unlikely that the offense will drop off if any. On the contrary, if Upton was traded the likelihood of a drop off is much more likely. It follows, that the Rays should benefit by simply staying put and waiting it out.

So what’s the current state of the Rays? Same old same old. There right in the thick of the AL East division despite a shoe string budget. The pitching is talented and deep with internal options waiting in the farm leagues. The hitting is inconsistent and options are limited with little spending money. Calling upon Jennings and waiting on Longoria and Upton to heat up could be enough fire power to compete during the pennant race in September. Especially with Joe Maddon at the helm.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox GAME 3 Recap

KudoSurf Me!Follow @twittablogga

WP- C. Buchholz (6-3)
LP- D. Price (7-6)
S- J. Papelbon (13)

The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox have a history of playing hard against one another. Call it animosity. Call it little brother syndrome. Call it what you will. Every game between the two organizations is interesting and Thursday didn’t disappoint.

During the first inning, both benches were warned after David Price beamed Kevin Youkilis to load the bases. Price didn’t comment on the issue but speculation is that Price was returning the favor based on Tuesday night when Youkilis kicked the Rays Casey Kotchman in the left ankle, leaving a bruise. Though Price may have earned style points with his teammates he ultimately put himself and his team behind the eight ball for the remainder of the night.

By hitting Youkilis, Price loaded the bases, and eventually walked in the go ahead run. Also, the warning seemed to have affectively taken away Price’s ability and confidence to attack the inside of the plate. Even accidentally hitting a batter would result in a rejection and possible suspension and fines. The result was a rattled Price that never really settled down. He gave up a couple of runs in the second inning and was gone by the fifth.

Despite shaky pitching, the Rays fought back with Sam Fuld’s second inning double that scored Upton making the score 3-1. Buchholz wasn’t stellar but was affective in handling the Rays lineup through five innings. In the fifth Buchholz left the game with back soreness and Alfredo Aceves entered the game for the Red Sox’s. Tampa responded with a Casey Kotchman solo homerun that brought the Rays within one run.

The Rays kept the game close until the ninth when Adrian Gonzalez jacked a solo homerun of Kyle Farnsworth restoring Boston’s two-run lead. Despite giving up the additional run the Rays made it interesting in the bottom half of the inning. Kotchman led off with a double and BJ Upton reached base on an infield single. Unfortunately, Elliot Johnson responded with committing the ultimate sin. While attempting the sacrifice bunt he popped the ball up to record the first out without advancing any of the runners. Jonathan Papelbon followed by striking out Justin Ruggiano and Sean Rodriguez to end the game. Papelbon recorded his 13th save of the season. Boston took the series 2-1

Where is Desmond Jennings?

KudoSurf Me!Follow @twittablogga

June is the unofficial month for clubs to promote their top prospects and this years crop shouldn’t disappoint. Just last week, the Dodgers called up SS Dee Gordon aka “The Flash”. The Royals followed suit by promoting third baseman Mike Moustakas and the Athletics have promoted super star Jemile Weeks. So what about the Tampa Bay Rays? Who’s the next Evan Longoria? Unless, you’ve been under a rock or just attained consciousness from a two-year coma you know the prospect is Desmond Jennings. So where is our guy?

Welcome to Super Two Purgatory! If you’re not familiar with Super Two eligibility here’s a quick refresher course. Under MLB’s salary and arbitration laws, players meet “Super Two Status” when the player records more than 130-140 days of service time. This allows the player to file for arbitration after two years as opposed to the standard three. Obviously, avoiding super two status benefits the club as they save money by paying the league minimum salary for an additional year. Because players accumulate service time each day they are on the team's 25-man roster the Rays will financially benefit by holding Jennings in the minor leagues until they are certain he won’t accumulate 130 service days.

I know? The Rays need Jennings now and would greatly benefit from him being in the lineup. The Rays are currently a few games behind both the Yankees and Red Soxs and neither of those organizations would procrastinate to save a few bucks. I know? That’s why the Yankees and Red Sox’s typically win the pennant. The fact of the matter is that the Rays don’t or can’t operate this way. The Rays currently don’t generate enough revenue to support our lofty expectations. It follows, that we must mind our P’s and Q’s especially when it comes to payroll.

With that said, Desmond Jennings is on his way. Jennings started the year with 33 days of service time due to past September callups, so the Rays likely won't call him up until the July 4th weekend. Desmond is considered the 22nd best prospect in all of baseball (Baseball Review). He’s a 24 year old 5 tool center fielder. He plays excellent defense, is incredibly fast, has great plate discipline, and hits consistently for average. His only weakness is power and he’s slowly developing it via 9 home runs in 59 games in Triple A.

What is Jennings expected to bring to the MLB roster? Think software upgrade! Now think two upgrades over BJ Upton or (Upton version 3.0). If you really love Jennings, and I do, then you compare him to Carl Crawford. I know I'm getting ahead of myself but the kid will make our club better just sitting on the pine next to Joe Maddon. He is expected to eventually replace Upton but will most likely start in left field once called up giving the Rays one of the best outfields in baseball.

Obviously, having Jennings on the 25 man roster NOW would be great. However, being a Rays fan you must first learn the virtue of patience. Until our team builds higher revenue streams we are best suited to improve our club by using internal options from our MLB best farm system. Jennings is a better option than most clubs will find internally or externally and by keeping him in Triple A for another two weeks we are saving our club the money needed to compete with the dominating Yankees and Red Sox’s. Thank goodness for Andrew Friedman.