Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Atlanta Braves Memorial Day Evaluation 2011

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Despite the Braves plethora of soft bats this year they’ve maintained their competitiveness in the National League East. Though we are only in June and the final standings are months away, this time a year is a traditional benchmark for evaluating a clubs strengths and weaknesses.

Despite Roger McDowell’s suspension and injuries to Brandon Beachy and Tim Hudson, the Braves have maintain one of the strongest if not best rotations in all of baseball. Currently the rotation ranks 2nd in overall ERA, 1st in WHIP, 1st in BAA, and 6th in quality starts. The Braves currently have three pitchers within the NL’s top ten WHIP percentages (Hudson 1.10, Hanson 1.07, Jurrjens 1.02) and also have two of the lowest ERA’s in the game with Jurrjens leading the NL and Hanson in the top ten. In addition to Jurrjens Cy Young start and Hanson’s 65 Strikeouts the Braves have the luxury of great pitching depth filling the holes as guys like Beachy and Hudson work out their bumps and bruises. Earlier this year the Braves showcased their young depth by giving spot starts to two of their future stars Julio Teheran and Mike Minor. Neither blew the socks off anyone but both showed glimpses of their ability and justified the hype and expectations the Braves have for them. With Lowe, Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, Beachy, Minor, and Teheran the Braves are poised to compete all year with the Phillies self proclaimed best rotation in MLB history.


If you haven’t already heard, the Braves bullpen has bee lights out all year! Even with Moylan out with back surgery the Braves currently have the second lowest ERA of any bullpen in all of baseball. They also sport 16 saves (5th best in MLB), allowed 49 earned runs (3rd lowest in MLB), and accumulated 173 strikeouts (1st in MLB). To top it off they’ve held opponent’s batting averages lower than any other pen in all of baseball (.208 BAA). Kimbrel, Venters, and O’Flaherty have been superb and Sherrill, Gearrin, and Martinez have shown strong performances that have made an already good bullpen a great one. The weakest link seems to be Linebrink but he seems to have taken a mentor role for our young guns and those stats aren’t present on scorecards. Furthermore, to make the cake even sweeter Kris Medlan is ahead of schedule from his Tommy John Surgery PT. Medlan wasn’t expected back until August but he is currently throwing curve balls and live pitching making his return more likely to occur in July. Kris won’t shake the world with his return but he could prove very valuable out of the pen or as an occasional spot start during a September run or October series.


Every Yin has its Yang and the Braves are no exception. As great as the overall pitching has been the Braves have struggled with hitting in almost category. Atlanta currently ranks in the bottom half of the league in Runs, Batting Average, On Base Percentage, and Slugging. What’s worse is that major contributors of the team are struggling the most. Dan Uggla’s .178 BA, .246 OBP, and .586 OPS are well documented but to add further insult to injury others such as Chipper and Jey Hey are struggling to boot. Simply put, Chipper is getting older everyday. Atlanta's savior Heyward is batting an abysmal .218 and has a very mediocre OBP of .317. McLouth is quite frankly becoming consistently mediocre at best. He has glimpses of Pittsburgh Nate but he offers little more than filling a position for the Braves at this point. McLouth’s injury and Schafers call up could prove to be a significant moment in the Braves immediate and long-term future. Schafer is no longer a top prospect but his defense and speed alone seems more valuable when compared to McLouths’s overall production. However, I’ll leave the Schafer discussion for another day. Back to the point, if Uggla, Chipper, Heyward, and McLouth continue to give mediocre performances the Braves may falter in the NL east. Despite superb pitching, Atlanta is unlikely to repeat the Giant's fairy tale title run (Good Pitching + Inconsistent Hitting= 2010 World Series Title).


Finally, Freddi Gonzalez has maintained the course quite well to date. Despite following in the footsteps of one of the greatest managers in the history of baseball he has done so with relative ease. His bullpen management has been questionable at times but overall he has done an outstanding job. He has a top rotation and young outstanding bullpen. He has a horrendous bench and a lineup of 5-8 hitters spread out from 1-9 and he is still managing enough runs to win games. If he focuses on improving our bats and base running he could very well lead the Braves to the playoffs and find himself in the manager of the year conversation.

Overall, the Braves are doing quite well despite the lack of hitting. They are currently 4.5 games back of Philly in the NL East standings and 1 game out of the wild card. They have the 5th highest run differential in the MLB behind only the Yankees, Phillies, St. Louis, and the Indians. Yes, despite horrendous hitting Atlanta has one of the top run differentials in the game. June is a benchmark for evaluating a club and if Frank Wren is taking an honest look he realizes he needs a deeper bench and bats to heat up. If Wren and Gonzalez focus on hitting and strengthening the bench, either internal or externally, then the Braves are one of the top teams in all of baseball.

Written by: Daniel C Wilson
Sources: ESPN.com

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